Europe remains heavily dependent on imported energy, with the EU’s import dependency rate standing at 57%. However, many Europeans — including nearly half of Poles — believe their countries are already energy independent. A new Ørsted study suggests that widespread gaps in understanding the costs and reliability of offshore wind may be weakening support for the energy transition, even though a renewable-based system could reduce Europe’s total energy costs by nearly 30% by 2040.

Building an energy system based on wind and solar is seen as essential for strengthening sovereignty and stabilising energy prices in Europe. Against the backdrop of projected electricity demand doubling by 2050, offshore wind is emerging as a cornerstone of the European energy mix, offering levelised costs of energy (LCoE) significantly lower than new gas and nuclear plants, while maintaining high production stability of around 91% of the time on average.

Misconceptions about costs, independence and reliability.

The study covered Poland, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. None of these countries is fully energy self-sufficient. Yet between 31% and 44% of respondents stated that their country has sufficient domestic energy resources to meet annual demand. In Poland, this view was shared by 44% of respondents, despite Eurostat data showing the country’s import dependency rate at 45.7%.

A similar gap between perception and reality applies to offshore wind. In Poland, 55% of respondents believe offshore wind is more expensive than it actually is, while 56% underestimate its high reliability. However, Ørsted’s analysis shows that a power system in which more than 80% of electricity comes from wind and solar could reduce total electricity costs in Europe by around 30% by 2040 compared with a fossil-based system. Importantly, even when integration costs for renewables are included, they would account for only around 15% of system costs, equivalent to approximately EUR 16/MWh.

This is also significant from an energy security perspective. Europe currently spends nearly EUR 400 billion annually on energy imports, while energy prices remain more than twice as high as before the energy crisis. A higher share of domestic renewable generation could reduce dependence on imported fuels and lower exposure to external price shocks and geopolitical risks.

Poland’s perspective: offshore wind in the debate on reliability and security

The Polish results show that the energy transition debate is strongly rooted in practical concerns. For 30% of respondents, affordability is the most important feature of the energy system, for 26% it is reliability, and for 17% it is energy independence. These priorities also shape how renewable energy technologies are assessed.

At the same time, Poles recognise the strategic benefits of expanding domestic renewables. 56% of respondents cite reduced dependence on energy imports from Russia and other strategic adversaries, 54% point to lower exposure to international crises and fuel price spikes, and 52% highlight more affordable electricity.

“In Poland, there is no lack of support for the energy transition. The greater challenge is ensuring that the discussion is based on facts rather than simplifications. When offshore wind is assessed mainly through the lens of cost, its impact on energy security, price stability and system resilience is often overlooked. Yet these are precisely the issues — prices, reliability and reduced dependence on fuel imports — that matter most to Poles today. This shows that offshore wind should be explained not only as a low-emission technology, but as a core element of a modern, more secure energy system,” says Agata Staniewska-Bolesta, Country Manager, Ørsted Poland.

Despite perception barriers, support for renewables remains high. In Poland, 84% of respondents consider further expansion of renewable energy important, including 53% who see it as very important. The challenge is therefore not the direction of the transition, but how individual technologies are communicated and understood in public debate.

About Ørsted

Ørsted is a global leader in offshore wind energy and a major player in the green energy transition. The company is widely recognised as one of the most sustainable energy producers globally and the only energy company to have fully decarbonised its own operations. Ørsted is present in multiple markets across North America, Europe and Asia. It has developed more than 30 offshore wind farms.

Poland is a key market for Ørsted, where the company employs over 700 people in its Warsaw office. Together with PGE, Ørsted is developing the Baltica 2 offshore wind farm with a capacity of 1.5 GW, which is expected to supply green energy to around 2.5 million Polish households from 2027.